Timely exposure of a secret project: Which activities to monitor?

A defender wants to detect as quickly as possible whether some attacker is secretly conducting a project that could harm the defender. Security services, for example, need to expose a terrorist plot in time to prevent it. The attacker, in turn, schedules his activities so as to remain undiscovered as long as possible. One pressing question for the defender is: which of the project's activities to focus intelligence efforts on? We model the situation as a zero‐sum game, establish that a late‐start schedule defines a dominant attacker strategy, and describe a dynamic program that yields a Nash equilibrium for the zero‐sum game. Through an innovative use of cooperative game theory, we measure the harm reduction thanks to each activity's intelligence effort, obtain insight into what makes intelligence effort more effective, and show how to identify opportunities for further harm reduction. We use a detailed example of a nuclear weapons development project to demonstrate how a careful trade‐off between time and ease of detection can reduce the harm significantly.     

kittel型反铁电相变的自由能

根据kittel型反铁电相变对称性的变化 ,选择轴矢量 R作为序参量是合适的。由Landau理论 ,相变温度附近的自由能F就可以写成 R幂级数展开的形式。令 F R=0 ,可得到关于序参量的方程 ,从而获得相变温度与自由能的关系     

军事物流服务商准入标准设置和甄选研究综述

军事物流服务商甄选研究是新军事变革下供应商管理发展的重要方向，是有效完成后勤保障任务、顺利实施作战行动的重要保证。基于此，本文从供应商关系理论和发展、物流服务商指标体系选择以及结合其他方法对物流服务商甄选三个方面对国内外研究现状进行总结概述，对整个军事物流服务商的选择过程加以研究，将其科学客观地运用于军事物流服务商选择的实际操作中，对于加强军事物流服务商需求管理、提高选择质效以及优化工作流程具有重大意义。同时，分析现有研究成果的不足，并对其未来发展前景提出展望，针对性地提出了军事物流服务商初步准入标准以及后续复选的方法，为军事物流服务商选择体系的完善提供参考。     

柔性长鳍扭波推进数学模型分析

以"尼罗河魔鬼"鱼的柔性长背鳍扭波推进模式为研究对象,通过观察活鱼的游动模式,提取影响扭波推进的运动学要素,建立了描述柔性长背鳍扭波推进时动态曲面的数学模型。研究了鳍条仰角与摆动规律对鳍面的影响。最后,用细长体理论分析并计算出推力分布。研究表明,鳍条仰角在φ=85°的情况下所形成的鳍面与垂直鳍条所形成的鳍面相比,其最大偏离值与鳍长之比为1.7%,可以用垂直于基线的鳍条制作模型;鳍条按正弦规律摆动时所形成的扭波波形鳍面与实鱼鳍面相似。     

Deterrence under nuclear asymmetry: THAAD and the prospects for missile defense on the Korean peninsula

The 2016 decision to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to South Korea has generated multitude of intensely politicized issues and has proved highly controversial. This has made it challenging to alleviate, let alone clarify, points of analytical and policy tensions. We instead disaggregate and revisit two fundamental questions. One is whether THAAD could really defend South Korea from North Korean missiles. We challenge the conventional “qualified optimism” by giving analytical primacy to three countermeasures available to defeat THAAD–use of decoys, tumbling and spiral motion, and outnumbering. These countermeasures are relatively inexpensive to create but exceedingly difficult to offset. Second, we assess the optimal way to ensure South Korean national security against North Korean missiles. By examining the balance of capability and issues of credibility/commitment, we show that the U.S. extended deterrence by punishment remains plentiful and sufficiently credible even without enhancing the current defense capability.     

使用保障资源的确定方法探讨

在使用保障过程中需要9项使用保障资源,包括人力与人员、保障设备、技术资料、训练与训练保障、计算机资源保障、保障设施、储存和运输、能源、弹药等。其中人力与人员、使用保障设备2项内容与使用保障联系最为紧密,在装备的研制阶段就应考虑确定。主要讨论了用相似系统法确定人力与人员的数量,用排队论确定保障设备的品种和数量。     

一种基于关联度的跳频频率预测方法

对跳频通信进行有效干扰的关键在于对跳频信号频率进行较准确的预测.根据跳频频率序列的混沌特性,并基于混沌系统相空间重构思想,提出了一种基于关联度的跳频频率预测方法,以达到具有较高有效预测概率的目的.仿真实验结果表明,在一定的预测精度要求条件下,该预测方法具有较高的有效预测概率,对跳频通信对抗研究具有借鉴意义.     

势流理论的一种数值方法在空泡形态中的应用

基于势流理论的假设,采取常规边界元法对具有自由面的定常平板和轴对称空泡流动数值方法进行了研究,运用Riabourichinsky镜像空化模型,建立了一种空泡自由面求解的优化迭代方法,以自由流线长度为参数求解模拟了定常无重工况下流经二维平板和轴对称圆盘的空化流动.数值计算结果与解析解的相对误差不超过3%,证实了轴对称体空泡外形的近似回转椭球体假说在空化器附近是不成立的.计算结果与同类文献数据的对比显示了边界元法进行空化流场计算具有着显著的优越性,所采用的迭代方法精度高、收敛速度快,所得结论对深入了解空化特性具有参考价值.     

基于粗糙集的空袭目标威胁评估排序

通过对影响空袭目标威胁排序因素的分析,针对定性与定量因素并存的情况,提出利用粗糙集理论进行威胁排序的方法.将已有决策表转化为成对比较表,利用优势属性集来推理决策规则,从而确定各目标的排序.案例表明此方法有效地解决了空袭目标威胁排序中的如何处理不确定信息的问题,大大提高了决策的准确性和客观性.     

Rethinking Military Virtue Ethics in an Age of Unmanned Weapons

Although most styles of military ethics are hybrids that draw on multiple ethical theories, they are usually based primarily on the model of Aristotelian virtue ethics. Virtue ethics is well-suited for regulating the conduct of soldiers who have to make quick decisions on the battlefield, but its applicability to military personnel is threatened by the growing use of unmanned weapon systems. These weapons disrupt virtue ethics’ institutional and cultural basis by changing what it means to display virtue and transforming the roles soldiers perform and the nature of the military profession itself. I argue that in light of these challenges to virtue ethics, at least as it is traditionally understood within the armed forces, soldiers operating unmanned weapons require a more heavily rule-based approach to military ethics.